Making use of this blog space to present some analysis.
This is about people who have died. The other category would be people who have not died. Everyone would prefer to be 'not died'... so a review of who has died is especially valuable.
This is information to 17 March.
Since preparing this I have learned of an English language update 20 March. My comments may still be useful. We will need to follow these updates for trends.
There is now an update to 24 March. The pattern remains basically the same the same.
This update on 9 April shows same patterns as in earlier reports.
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This blog entry is a translation of useful parts of a paper dated 17 March from the Istituto Superiore di Sanita (Italy's top health advisory body to government). The whole paper is here. I also offer some comments. My comments will be marked clearly, Italics, Bold and the word COMMENT.
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Total cases compared with deceased
This next text, including Fig 1, compares the total number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 with the deceased. COMMENT: Be careful, these are percentage figures and of course the actual number of deceased is much smaller than the number diagnosed.
The median age of the deceased is 15 years higher than the median age of those diagnosed. Among the deceased the median age for women 83.7, men 79.5
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Age groups
Figure 2 then presents numbers by age group: women [donne] men [uomini] and total [tutti],
COMMENT: From age 70 the numbers of men are much higher than for women. Speculative comments: [1] in older age groups different working life experience [2] different day to day life experience with retired men in gatherings out of the home, women at home, in some Italian towns. [3] different smoking history?
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Pre-existing disease
... what people had wrong with them before diagnosis with COVID-19. This presents the 'most common' pre-existing chronic conditions.
However, this data is from 355 of 2003 deceased only.
Only 3 of these deceased had no pre-existing chronic disease. To translate the disease names below in the order in the table:
Ischemic heart disease
Atrial fibrillation
Stroke
High blood pressure
Diabetes mellitus
Dementia
BPCO = COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Cancer active in the past five years
Chronic liver disease
Chronic kidney disease
You can see the relative significance of these diseases.
COMMENT: these numbers do not directly indicate cause. For example the numbers for stroke, dementia and liver disease could be compared with the fact that 9% of people in northern Italy are left handed. Given the ages of the deceased, it would also be relevant to know the incidence of dementia in the population at large.
The big percentages stand out and the 'number of pathologies' [i.e. number of pre-existing conditions] is important. Very sick people are obviously more likely to be killed by this virus, probably similar scores regarding pre-existing conditions for deaths while having other viruses. This is not to compare COVID-19 with other diseases but to assert a general point that sick people are more likely to be badly affected by viral diseases.
----
Symptoms
Comment: again note that this is symptoms of this group of deceased persons
Percentage of patients with these symptoms before brought to hospital.
Emottisi = coughing blood
Diarrhoea
Difficulty breathing
Cough
Fever
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Complications:
Note the 97% score for respiratory insufficiency. COMMENT: see video interview with Chinese pathologist down below******
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Drug Treatments: antibiotic, steroidal, antiviral
COMMENT: these numbers show treatment preferences, not successes
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Time
COMMENT: these numbers indicate that these people who have died died quickly
MEDIAN TIMES
from the onset of symptoms to death 8 days
from the onset of symptoms to hospital admission 4 days
from hospital admission to death 4 days
... and the last two numbers show difference between patients who did and did not have support by respirator.
COMMENT: what is not present here is information on the value of respirator support among survivors, that is, to what extent respirators saved from death.
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People under 50
As at 17 March, only 17 deceased under 50. Of whom five had serious pre-existing conditions.
End of quoting from that report
***** Regarding respiratory complications this interview with a Chinese pathologist is of interest
This is about people who have died. The other category would be people who have not died. Everyone would prefer to be 'not died'... so a review of who has died is especially valuable.
This is information to 17 March.
Since preparing this I have learned of an English language update 20 March. My comments may still be useful. We will need to follow these updates for trends.
There is now an update to 24 March. The pattern remains basically the same the same.
This update on 9 April shows same patterns as in earlier reports.
----
This blog entry is a translation of useful parts of a paper dated 17 March from the Istituto Superiore di Sanita (Italy's top health advisory body to government). The whole paper is here. I also offer some comments. My comments will be marked clearly, Italics, Bold and the word COMMENT.
 |
| Report on the characteristics of deceased patients positive to COVID-19 (data up to 17 March) |
-----
Total cases compared with deceased
This next text, including Fig 1, compares the total number of people diagnosed with COVID-19 with the deceased. COMMENT: Be careful, these are percentage figures and of course the actual number of deceased is much smaller than the number diagnosed.
The median age of the deceased is 15 years higher than the median age of those diagnosed. Among the deceased the median age for women 83.7, men 79.5
-----
Age groups
Figure 2 then presents numbers by age group: women [donne] men [uomini] and total [tutti],
COMMENT: From age 70 the numbers of men are much higher than for women. Speculative comments: [1] in older age groups different working life experience [2] different day to day life experience with retired men in gatherings out of the home, women at home, in some Italian towns. [3] different smoking history?
----
Pre-existing disease
... what people had wrong with them before diagnosis with COVID-19. This presents the 'most common' pre-existing chronic conditions.
However, this data is from 355 of 2003 deceased only.
Only 3 of these deceased had no pre-existing chronic disease. To translate the disease names below in the order in the table:
Ischemic heart disease
Atrial fibrillation
Stroke
High blood pressure
Diabetes mellitus
Dementia
BPCO = COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Cancer active in the past five years
Chronic liver disease
Chronic kidney disease
You can see the relative significance of these diseases.
COMMENT: these numbers do not directly indicate cause. For example the numbers for stroke, dementia and liver disease could be compared with the fact that 9% of people in northern Italy are left handed. Given the ages of the deceased, it would also be relevant to know the incidence of dementia in the population at large.
The big percentages stand out and the 'number of pathologies' [i.e. number of pre-existing conditions] is important. Very sick people are obviously more likely to be killed by this virus, probably similar scores regarding pre-existing conditions for deaths while having other viruses. This is not to compare COVID-19 with other diseases but to assert a general point that sick people are more likely to be badly affected by viral diseases.
----
Symptoms
Comment: again note that this is symptoms of this group of deceased persons
Percentage of patients with these symptoms before brought to hospital.
Emottisi = coughing blood
Diarrhoea
Difficulty breathing
Cough
Fever
-----
Complications:
Note the 97% score for respiratory insufficiency. COMMENT: see video interview with Chinese pathologist down below******
------
Drug Treatments: antibiotic, steroidal, antiviral
COMMENT: these numbers show treatment preferences, not successes
----------
Time
COMMENT: these numbers indicate that these people who have died died quickly
MEDIAN TIMES
from the onset of symptoms to death 8 days
from the onset of symptoms to hospital admission 4 days
from hospital admission to death 4 days
... and the last two numbers show difference between patients who did and did not have support by respirator.
COMMENT: what is not present here is information on the value of respirator support among survivors, that is, to what extent respirators saved from death.
-------
People under 50
As at 17 March, only 17 deceased under 50. Of whom five had serious pre-existing conditions.
End of quoting from that report
***** Regarding respiratory complications this interview with a Chinese pathologist is of interest
